Report Sees Dire Future for Warming's Impact on U.S. Transport

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• global warming
• transportation
• research
• infrastructure

Transportation's contribution to global warming has been well articulated. It’s responsible for 33 percent of United States emissions from fossil fuel combustion—more if you count the life-cycle emissions from extracting fuel and manufacturing vehicles. Now, for the first time, the government is taking an in-depth look at the flip scenario: how global warming is affecting transportation.

A report released today by the National Research Council, in collaboration with the Transportation Research Board, has a clear message for transportation professionals: Stop thinking of climate change as just a future problem, and start dealing with the realities of it today. According to the study, every mode of transport will be affected—and in fact many already have been.

"it’s now time to move from the debate on climate science to what we’re going to do about it," said Henry Schwartz, past president and chairman of Svedrup/Jacobs Civil Inc., and chair of the committee that wrote the report, in a press conference this morning. "Not in the sense of 'What kind of automobile are we going to drive?'" Global warming is already in motion, he says, and the real question is: "How are we going to address it, specifically for this critical part of our economy, the transportation system?”

Current infrastructure is built for typical weather and a reasonable range of extremes, but that’s not what we can expect for the future. The best available science indicates that we’re going to experience hotter days, higher seas, more intense storms and a warmer Arctic. These human induced changes may sometimes be amplified by natural climate fluctuations, creating extremes never before experienced in modern times.

Potentially the greatest impact for North America will be flooded coastal roads, railways, transit systems and runways caused by rising seas and exacerbated by storm surges and land subsidence. Several of the largest ports in the U.S., plus oil and gas operations, are located on the Gulf Coast—the vulnerability of which has already been clearly demonstrated. But infrastructure on the East Coast, Pacific Northwest and parts of California will be affected, too.

Other impacts emphasized in the report include:

• Heat waves and very hot days could cause thermal expansion on bridge joints, the buckling of pavement and the deformation of railroad tracks. Increased temperatures could also upset aircraft lift-off load limits, particularly at high-altitude airports with insufficient runway lengths, resulting in flight cancellations or limits in payload.

• More intense snow and rain events could overload drainage systems, wash out roads, damage rail-bed support structures and cause mudslides. They could also increase delays at airports and affect the depth of shipping channels, as the patterns of silt deposit change.

• Less rain overall could increase drought, making infrastructure susceptible to wildfires and, subsequently, to mudslides. The visibility at airports in wildfire-prone areas would decrease. As water levels shift, river transportation routes would be impacted.

•Warmer temperatures in the Arctic could thaw permafrost, causing subsidence of roads, rail beds, bridge supports and pipelines. Thawing permafrost under a number of commercial airports and airstrips could undermine runway foundations. Already, the season for the use of temporary ice roads has been shortened.

Of course, not all effects are negative: For example, fewer cold days mean less time and money will have to be spent on road salt and on de-icing planes (but they could also mean more freeze-thaw conditions, creating frost heaves and potholes). And marine transportation will benefit from less ice fog, fewer ice jams, longer shipping seasons and an open Northwest Passage. (Companies in the Great Lakes won’t be so lucky, as lower water levels mean ships won’t be able to carry as much cargo, resulting in increased shipping costs.)

"It’s fair to say that transportation professionals have not viewed global warming as an area of great significance to them—I think, incorrectly so," Schwartz said. "The extremes and the surprises that may come as a result are going to impact them more than they heretofore have taken into account.”

So what’s a flummoxed transportation professional to do? Well, throw out the past several decades worth of climate data that shaped current operations, for one. (Or at least stop relying on it.) With warming already in the pipeline from past carbon dioxide emissions, new parameters are a given: Future investments, the study suggests, must be made based on scientists’ best available projections for regional climates.

That means rethinking standards for design elements: For example, increase drainage capacity to accommodate storm surges; tie bridge decks more securely to the substructure to weather hurricanes; use more continuous welded rail lines to prevent heat deformities; and elevate bridges, streets and rail lines to adapt for changes in sea levels. Long-term, engineers should work toward developing heat-resistant materials and shallow-bottom vessels.

In the near term, taking inventory of America’s most vulnerable infrastructure will be key. By outfitting it with technology to monitor its condition, as well as shifts in regional climate, officials will be able to receive advanced warning of potential failures. The report emphasizes redundant communications and power systems for restoring transportation systems quickly in the event that they do go down.

To adapt to new extremes, transportation providers should work more closely with weather forecasters and emergency planners, and respond to severe weather events in ways that are more routine and proactive than ad hoc. In other words, develop emergency response and evacuation plans before emergencies occur, and make sure they are communicated clearly to the people living in high-risk areas.

Finally, the study offered an age-old piece of advice that, backed by recent events and climate modeling data, may now seem more realistic: Planners should attempt to avoid placing people and infrastructure in vulnerable locations in the first place.

2. RE: Report Sees Dire Future for Warming's Impact on U.S. Transport
Global warming caused by humans is a scam! "The sky is falling!" says Chicken Little(Al Gore). Only this time he is lining his wallet with bogus "carbon credits".

1. RE: Report Sees Dire Future for Warming's Impact on U.S. Transport
SMOG now causes global warming? Because it sure isn 't an odorless, tasteless colorless gas that is depicted in the picture included with the article. Maybe the LA Basin SMOG is caused by the tar pits? Historical records show the SMOG was there when man got there. We are freezing our buts off, the Earth has been cooling for at least 8 years and the hoax rolls on. I would like to see Al Gore do another film, correcting the obvious errors in the first, because now that the data has been corrected, he sure couldn't put out the same drivel as last time. Such is the ways of propagandists.

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